This year’s national grain crop needs urgent rains over coming weeks to deliver an average production year in most grain producing regions, says Grain Producers Australia chair, Barry Large.
After two record harvests estimated at about 140 million tonnes and $60 billion in value, expectations are realistic about the reduced size of this year’s crop, given the forecast El Niño. Generally speaking, the country’s south is still looking good, but northern regions are looking at a very tight finish, with fertiliser shortages compounding the problem.
Whilst most grain producing regions are facing an average year, South Australia is looking at another big one.
Grain Producers SA president Adrian McCabe farms at Hamley Bridge and said there was good soil moisture in most areas, putting the state’s grain crops in a good position for a strong finish.
“South Australia is looking above average at this stage; a couple more decent rains from here and the season will land very well for most growers,” he said.
“For those who got August rain and if more rain arrives in September, it’ll be huge – up around last year’s numbers (about 10.4 million tonnes) and another $4 billion in value.”
Mr McCabe said crops in soils that can hold good water were looking solid and those that can’t hold water as well, around the west coast, will need another rain.
“High rainfall areas such as the Yorke Peninsular and lower, mid-north heading east are looking strong, with fully fertilised crops.
“We’ve seen flag leaf emergence; the canola has been flowering and legumes are heading into podding stages. Overall, there’s a fairly confident outlook.”
AgForce Grains president Brendan Taylor farms at Warra on the Western Downs in Queensland.
He said a good rainfall event was still needed all across Queensland to finish off wheat, barley and chickpea crops – but that wasn’t looking likely any time soon.
“What happens in the next few weeks will tell the story of the season, if it rains or not, but at this stage we’re looking at a below average year at best.
“The Downs is probably the pick of the growing regions. Crops sown into good moisture profiles in April are looking by far the best at this stage, but the later plantings have not had much rain and will struggle.”
An average season in 2023 is in stark contrast to the record production of last year and wet conditions where “we were harvesting in the bog”, Mr Taylor said.
“This year it looks like there will be cracks in the ground at harvest and production numbers will be down significantly. When it’s warm and dry that generally equals significant yield reduction.
“Some regions of Queensland have had very little rain and are bordering on being in drought, after two record years. South Burnett is pretty crook and parts of Maranoa. If you compare this year to last year’s production, it’s not even close.
“We’re at the pointy end of the season now. A good fall of rain will help finish off the crop, but for some of the crops the rain won’t make any difference because they’ve suffered for too long.
“But some rain now will also help the summer crop and our sorghum plantings.”
In contrast, NSW Farmers grains committee chair Justin Everitt farms in southern NSW at Brocklesby near Albury.
He said northern NSW was quite dry, but conditions were much wetter in the State’s south.
However, a serious lack of fertiliser supply is hurting yield potential.
“Parts of northern NSW got early crops into the moisture and are looking good but the later planted crops are looking ordinary,” he said.
“They still need some rain to finish off, so what happens over the next month will really determine where this season ends up.”
Mr Everitt said the middle of the state was looking okay and some areas in the south were struggling the most due to the lack of nitrogen which has held the yield back.
“There’s plenty of potential in the crops but it’s being lost due to the lack of fertiliser.
“They’re saying ships may be coming in with stock around September, but that’ll be too late for improving the crop the yield and it’s already too late for canola.
“Obviously we need more rain in the north and right cross the state, but it’ll still be an average to below average year.
“In some pockets it’ll be really good and other places where it’s wet there will be some issues.
“The wheat crop’s tracking alright although there may be some concerns around protein content, but we’ll see how that plays out over the next couple of months.”
Victorian Farmers’ Federation Grains Council president Craig Henderson said in his region around the northern Wimmera, 120mms of rain was received at end of May and into the second week in July which, “set up our season beautifully”.
“We’ve had a few showers since then and the crops are good with good moisture profile, but we’re still worried about the forecast ahead.
“Prices are good, and the crops look similar to where they were at this same stage last year when we had a big year, but that could change in four weeks.”
Mr Henderson said conditions further south past Horsham were drying out where crops had suffered a lot of moisture stress, whilst also lacking urea.
“Some couldn’t get the urea on their crops and that’ll have adverse impacts on the yields.
“We keep looking at that forecast. If you look at our rainfall data, each rain event is tapering off and we’re getting less and less moisture. The roots are down about a metre now and water was on the paddocks three weeks ago, so we’re a long way from hitting the wall.
“In general, the wheat, barley, canola and lentil crops are really good through the Mallee. We’d be really disappointed if we didn’t achieve an average season around here because of the stored water.”
WAFarmers Grains Council president Mark Fowler said this season started well for growers in the middle of the WA Wheatbelt where he farms around Williams, while further south towards Esperance the conditions in mid-August were also quite wet.
Good rainfall at the start of the season has meant crops sown early are in good shape, whilst those planted later were moving a bit slower.
“We need some more rain to ensure we finish off the season well, but at this early stage of the year it’s still looking to be just slightly above average,” he said.
GIWA’s July report says early sown crops (canola and barley) in WA’s Albany Zone were in very good shape, but wheat still had “a long way to go” and overall were also looking at an average season.
WA Grains Group chair Alistair Falconer farms across a number of properties in the family enterprise, Falconer Grains at Coorow, Watheroo and Wongan Hills.
Mr Falconer said conditions were “very dry” in the northern Wheatbelt where a month ago it was looking at to be a below average season.
“The further north and east you go, the worse it gets,” he said.
“The crops still have a fair bit to go, and we really need a good drink. We’ve had a 5mm event and need 20–30mm to finish things off, but it’s also getting warmer, and we had some very warm days last month close to 30 degrees.
“We’ve had three good years in a row so to have a fourth one in WA you’d almost have to pinch yourself to check you’re still alive.”
*Grain Producers Australia represents the nation’s grain producers on national policy and advocacy. Its members include direct grower members and the grain producing members of state farming organisations. Each of the state leaders watch the seasonal conditions closely as part of their roles and provided this seasonal outlook from their local perspectives.
