Understanding ‘climate moods’ adds strength to the management toolbox in our increasingly variable climate, writes Kate Burke*.
Climate mood is a phrase from Agriculture Victoria climate specialist Graeme Anderson.
I've developed a ‘Climate mood report card’ to inform how rainfall, production and whole-farm performance react to each mood. This concept also applies to patterns in supply chain demand and supply.
Events in the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean dictate the climate mood and are measured by the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) respectively. While about 18 ocean and atmospheric factors affect climate, IOD and ENSO have the most influence on rainfall, particularly in southern Australia.
The moods go from A to F based on ENSO and IOD combinations. The past does not predict the future, but it can provide examples of what to expect and help assign probabilities.
Mood A is a negative IOD phase and a La Niña phase and is associated with high rainfall. Mood A years are generally productive, but flood-prone districts can incur significant hardship. With an A mood forecast in 2022, we planned for the possibility of a wet spring and flooding. While it's impossible to be fully prepared for extreme weather events, this thinking helped capture the production opportunity and be mentally and practically prepared for flooding.
Mood B is when La Nina occurs and can be wet and cool but not always. Mood C is when the Pacific Ocean is neutral, and the Indian Ocean is neutral, and the resultant climate is highly variable.
Mood C is when the Pacific Ocean is neutral, and the Indian Ocean is neutral, and the resultant climate is highly variable.
Mood D is IOD positive without El Nino, and Mood E is El Nino alone. Both Mood D and E type years are more likely to be drier.
Mood E can have variable outcomes but are generally on the hot and dry side. 2018 and 2019 slot into this category
Mood F is El Nino and IOD Positive and is a bad mood as experienced in 2006 and 2015. For example, in F years rainfall was around 60 percent of the average at Longerenong in Western Victoria and warmer than average temperatures across southern Australia.
Forecast skill for models is moderate during April but it's worth taking note when consensus is strong among the eight international climate models. Most models forecast an early winter El Nino persisting into spring (Mood E). An IOD positive event is a high probability for July, August and possibly September (Mood F) which could mean dry, hot conditions for that period.
Regional weather variation will occur based on other climate drivers like the Southern Annular Mode in southeastern Australia and the Madden Julian Oscillation in the tropics. High rainfall in 2022 and early 2023 could provide a buffer from the effects of a dry winter and spring period.
Potential production and earnings need to be assessed on a district by district and farm by farm basis.
After a run of wet years in many locations, it may be difficult to get clients thinking forward to the implications of a dry spell. Forewarned is forearmed
Even with a dry warm spring, yield potential (and demand for crop protection products) will still be strong where there is a full profile of stored moisture or in irrigated scenarios where the supply of water is cost effective.
This is a season to monitor rainfall and yield potential closely, to understand what the odds of each climate mood are and what the practical implications might be. In cricket terms, it means playing every ball on merits.
*Dr Kate Burke – author of ‘Crops People Money and You, The Art of Excellent Farming and Better Returns’ – is an ag scientist, agri strategist, educator and speaker. Her book outlines a road map for sustainable profit taking and legacy making with less stress. Visit www.thinkagri.com.au
