Summer crop production in Queensland is forecast to decline by 36% to 1.6 million tonnes in 2023–24 to around the 10-year average, with big reductions in sorghum and cotton production, according to ABARES Australian Crop Report: September edition.
The news is considerably better in New South Wales where summer crop production is forecast to be only 3% lower than 2022–232 at be 2.4 million tonnes. This includes an expected increase in cotton production despite lower plantings, especially dryland.
However, the area of sorghum in NSW is likely to take hit, falling by 26% to 140 thousand hectares in 2023–24 due to low stored soil moisture levels and the expectation of a hot and dry spring and summer.
Total production expected to fall 41% to 448 thousand tonnes. This is 7% lower than the 10-year average.
Cotton lint production is forecast to increase by 11% to 817 thousand tonnes in 2023–24. Planting of irrigated crops in 2023–24 will be supported by high levels of water storage in the Murray-Darling Basin following three consecutive years of above-average rainfall.
High water storage levels, carryover water and irrigation allocations are expected to support irrigated cotton yields despite the expected onset of hot and dry climate conditions; offsetting reductions in dryland cotton yields.
Rice production is forecast to rise by 26% to 650 thousand tonnes in 2023–24, as area planted recovers on the back of improved weather conditions. This follows challenging weather conditions in 2022–23 which led to falls in both planted area and yields.
ABARES is tipping the sorghum area in Queensland to fall by 20% in 2023–24 due to below average soil moisture levels which will discourage early planting and the below average spring/summer rainfall outlook. Sorghum production is forecast to fall by 38% to around 1.1 million tonnes in 2023–24, on the back of reduced yield prospects and lower planted area.
Irrigated cotton area is forecast to decrease across southern and central Queensland compared to 2022–23 due to decreased irrigation water availability. Dry spring/summer conditions are also expected to curtail dryland cotton plantings and yields for central Queensland.
