The gross value of agricultural production is forecast to rise by $6 billion to $88.4 billion in 2024-25 ($94.3 billion including fisheries and forestry), the second highest result on record.
The overall rise is driven by higher livestock and livestock product values ($3.8 billion higher) as rising prices incentivise turn-off despite improved seasonal conditions.
Crop production values are also forecast to rise ($2.2 billion higher) as rising production more than offsets lower prices.
Improving seasonal conditions in 2024-25 across major grain producing states is expected to support aggregate crop production and average broadacre crop farm profits.
However, a drier than expected spring has reduced winter crop production prospects in parts of south-eastern Australia.
Forecast total farm production values for 2024-25 have been revised up by around $2.2 billion from the September 2024 Agricultural Commodities Report. This reflects upwards revisions to both prices and production volumes across major crops and livestock commodities given recent data.
The gross value of agricultural production is expected to increase in 2024–25 due to rises in both production volumes and prices.
Nearly two thirds of the overall increase is due to higher livestock and livestock product values, mainly due to recovering livestock prices (up by 7 per cent) from lows experienced in 2023-24. Rising global prices are also expected to incentivise higher turn-off rates and production volumes despite improving seasonal conditions in Australia as producers seek to meet strong global demand.
By commodity, the increase in livestock and livestock product values reflects:
Crop production values are also expected to rise in 2024-25 ($2.2 billion higher) reflecting expected higher crop production volumes (up by 7 per cent).
In particular, improved seasonal conditions relative to last year across Western Australia, New South Wales and Queensland are supporting winter crop production.
Strong production from these regions is expected to more than offset reduced winter crop yields in South Australia and Victoria as a result of unfavourable spring growing conditions.
The outlook for summer crop production is mostly favourable for 2024-25.
By contrast, crop prices are expected to fall in 2024-25 (down by 2.5 per cent) in line with lower global crop prices due to higher global exportable supply, falling demand from major importers and waning volatility from the effects of geopolitical conflict.
By commodity, increases in the value of crop production reflect:
• Higher wheat (up $1 billion) and pulses values (up $1 billion), as favourable seasonal conditions support aggregate production outcomes.
• Higher horticulture values (up $860 million) given ongoing strong global demand and rising prices.
• An increase in wine grape values (up $100 million) with higher production and the re-opening of the Chinese market supporting prices.
• By contrast canola, cotton and sugar values are expected to fall. Declines in sugar production values reflect easing international prices from recent highs, while lower canola values reflect falling Australian production.
Agricultural export values are forecast to fall by $1.3 billion to $70.1 billion in 2024-25 ($74.1 billion including fisheries and forestry exports) with expected lower crop export values (down $3.4 billion) outweighing expected higher livestock and livestock product export values (up $2.1 billion).
Despite this, agricultural export values are expected to be the third highest on record.
Crop export volumes are forecast to fall by 5 per cent; this comes despite expected higher crop production as high carryover stocks from record production years between 2020-21 and 2022-23 have been depleted.
Crop export prices are also expected to moderate (down by 4 per cent) with global prices easing since 2023-24.
Livestock and livestock product export volumes are forecast to rise by 5 per cent as strong global demand drives large increases in Australian red meat exports, and 2024-25 is forecast to be the fourth consecutive year of beef and sheep meat export volume growth, driven by rising demand from the US, China, Japan and emerging markets in the Middle East.
Livestock and livestock product export prices are also expected to rise (up by 2 per cent), due to strong global demand for meat and dairy products.
For dairy products, growth in global demand is forecast to outpace global supply growth given expected slowing Chinese milk production.
